The FORECAST Act of 2025 amends the statutory duties of the NOAA Under Secretary to prioritize research, operationalization, and delivery of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) temperature and precipitation forecasts. It directs NOAA to advance multi-model ensemble systems, coupled data assimilation across atmosphere, ocean, land, ice and related observations, and to publish forecasts and related impacts through an Internet clearinghouse.
The statute explicitly encourages use of AI, machine learning, and unmanned systems, and aligns NOAA activity with the agency’s 2018 S2S roadmap.
The bill also creates a permanent workforce program under the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 to expand recruitment, scholarships, and direct hiring pathways for people skilled in data assimilation, high-performance computing, and emerging forecast technologies. The law authorizes targeted funding for NOAA modeling teams and establishes planning, reporting, and grant-like authorities to partner with universities and nonprofits to integrate research innovations into operational forecast systems.
At a Glance
What It Does
Amends 15 U.S.C. 8521 to require NOAA to focus on S2S predictability, develop multi-model ensemble forecasting and advanced coupled data-assimilation methods, operationalize research models, create an online clearinghouse for forecasts and impact linkages, and leverage AI and unmanned systems. It also adds a new workforce program to recruit and train data assimilation and modeling personnel and updates hiring authorities to support those hires.
Who It Affects
NOAA program offices and modeling teams (including the Earth Prediction Innovation Center), institutions of higher education and nonprofits that receive NOAA funding or partner on modeling, the broader weather enterprise (private model developers and operational forecast centers), and end users such as emergency managers, agriculture and water managers who rely on S2S guidance.
Why It Matters
The bill moves S2S forecasting from research toward routine operational use by tying research priorities to operationalization, centralizing forecast access via a clearinghouse, and investing in the human capital and institutional partnerships needed to sustain advanced modeling and data-assimilation efforts.
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What This Bill Actually Does
The FORECAST Act rewrites NOAA’s statutory S2S responsibilities to require focused research, practical forecast production, and better data integration. The new language directs NOAA to not only study predictability for temperature and precipitation but to collect and use Earth-system observations (atmosphere, ocean, land, snow, ice and related processes) to produce usable forecasts for subseasonal-to-seasonal timeframes.
It calls out multi-model ensembles, coupled data-assimilation techniques, and stronger verification and evaluation capacities as central deliverables—shifting emphasis from isolated model development to interoperable systems and forecast quality assessment.
Operationalization is explicit: the statute asks NOAA to accelerate adoption of research modeling advances into operational forecast systems and to invest in data management strategies that support both research and operations. NOAA must also develop ways to relate S2S forecasts to practical impacts—such as drought, floods, fires, snowpack, sea ice, and permafrost—and provide those links publicly.
The bill requires creation of an Internet clearinghouse so that national and regional S2S forecasts and their impact information are accessible to users across government, industry, and communities.To sustain those capabilities, the Act establishes the Weather and Earth System Modeling and Data Assimilation Workforce Innovation Program. That program funds scholarships, fellowships, and research to grow talent in high-performance computing, machine learning, unmanned systems, and data-assimilation methods.
It also mandates an annual human-capital plan identifying hiring and skill gaps, allows NOAA to form agreements with universities and nonprofits to integrate technologies, and directs updates to NOAA’s direct-hire eligibility to make it easier to convert fellows and interns into permanent staff. Finally, recipients of program funds must be evaluated and NOAA must report to Congressional committees on outcomes, creating an accountability loop between workforce investment and operational readiness.
The Five Things You Need to Know
The bill requires NOAA to align S2S activities with the July 12, 2018 report 'Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasting Innovation: Plans for the Twenty-First Century.', It defines 'Earth system' for S2S purposes to include atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial, ice, and related processes and data that influence subseasonal-to-seasonal weather and climate.
The bill authorizes $28,500,000 specifically for carrying out the amended S2S section for each of fiscal years 2026 and 2027.
Funds for activities that operationalize modeling (under section 102(b)(5) of the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017) may be provided as 'such sums as may be necessary' and are targeted for NOAA’s modeling team within the Earth Prediction Innovation Center or eligible institutions of higher education.
The workforce program requires NOAA to produce an annual data-assimilation and modeling human capital plan and to submit that plan and any revisions to the Secretary of Commerce and the Director of OMB.
Section-by-Section Breakdown
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Short title
Formalizes the Act's name as the 'Forecasting Optimization for Robust Earth Climate Analysis and S2S Tracking Act of 2025' (FORECAST Act of 2025). This is purely titular but matters for statutory citations and cross-references in follow-on rulemaking and appropriation documents.
Functions: research, operationalization, clearinghouse, and technology priorities
Replaces NOAA’s existing subsection (c) with an expanded list of functions that require the agency to conduct fundamental research into S2S predictability, produce usable S2S temperature and precipitation forecasts, and prioritize multi-model ensemble systems and forecast verification. Practically, these directives require NOAA to coordinate data exchange across model systems, develop coupled data-assimilation methods, and plan for data-management solutions that support both operational forecasting and research. The provision also instructs NOAA to accelerate research technologies into operations and explicitly calls for use of AI, machine learning, and unmanned systems, which will shape procurements, partnership choices, and technical roadmaps.
Appropriations language and focus areas for modeling funding
Adds a targeted authorization structure: a fixed-dollar authorization ($28.5M for each of FY2026–2027) to carry out the S2S section, plus open-ended authority for funds directed at activities that operationalize modeling advances under existing Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act provisions. It specifies that such operationalization funds are intended for NOAA’s modeling team within EPIC or qualifying higher-education institutions and enumerates four focus areas—high-performance computing, scientific innovation, management and planning, and external engagement—which will guide how NOAA allocates awarded sums.
Creates Weather and Earth System Modeling and Data Assimilation Workforce Innovation Program
Adds a new statutory program requiring NOAA to expand education, recruitment, scholarships, and fellowships aimed at building capacity in data-assimilation and modeling technologies. The provision requires an annual human capital plan identifying workforce gaps and permits use of federal hiring pathways (including part 362) to convert pipeline participants into civil servants. It also authorizes NOAA to award funds to universities and nonprofits to integrate new technologies and requires a report within two years after initial awards to Senate Commerce and House Science committees on program effectiveness.
Definitions and technical amendments
Defines 'Earth system' and cross-references existing higher education and nonprofit definitions. It also updates the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act’s table of contents to include the new workforce section—technical changes that matter for interpretation, grant eligibility, and coordination with other statutory programs.
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Explore Science in Codify Search →Who Benefits and Who Bears the Cost
Every bill creates winners and losers. Here's who stands to gain and who bears the cost.
Who Benefits
- Emergency managers and regional decision-makers — gain broader, centralized access to S2S forecasts and impact linkages via the mandated clearinghouse, improving planning for droughts, floods, and heat events.
- Universities and research centers — become eligible partners and potential recipients of funds to operationalize models and receive support for fellowships, research awards, and integration projects tied to NOAA modeling priorities.
- Early-career scientists and students — benefit from scholarships, dissertation fellowships, and expanded pathways (including updated direct-hire eligibility) that increase career entry points into NOAA and the weather enterprise.
- NOAA’s Earth Prediction Innovation Center and modeling teams — receive designated resources and explicit statutory backing to scale multi-model ensemble development, data-assimilation work, and HPC upgrades.
- Sectors that depend on S2S guidance (agriculture, water management, utilities, and insurance) — stand to gain more reliable lead-time information linking forecasts to impacts such as snowpack, wildfire risk, and flood potential.
Who Bears the Cost
- NOAA program offices — must absorb implementation responsibilities, manage new grants and partnerships, and stand up the clearinghouse and human-capital planning processes, all of which create administrative overhead even when some funds are authorized.
- Federal budget (appropriators) — face a new line-item pressure for FY2026–2027 ($28.5M per year plus open-ended operationalization funds), requiring trade-offs with other agency priorities unless additional appropriations are provided.
- Institutions of higher education and nonprofits that receive awards — must meet reporting and integration requirements and allocate faculty and administrative time to translate research into operations.
- HPC centers and IT operations — will need additional capacity and investment to support coupled ensemble systems and AI-driven workflows, shifting capital and operational expenditures.
- Private-sector data and model providers — may incur integration and compatibility costs if NOAA prioritizes particular ensemble architectures or data-assimilation standards that require interfacing or certification.
Key Issues
The Core Tension
The central dilemma is speed versus sustainability: the Act pushes NOAA to accelerate operational use of advanced S2S modeling and to scale human capital quickly, but it relies on limited specified funding and broad authorization language for the rest—creating a trade-off between rapid, visible progress and the steady, well-resourced investments needed to ensure long-term reliability, verification, and workforce retention.
The bill sets clear priorities but leaves critical implementation choices open. The fixed $28.5M authorization for two fiscal years is explicit, but much operationalization funding is authorized as 'such sums as may be necessary'—language that depends entirely on future appropriations decisions.
That creates a funding design that could either enable rapid scaling if appropriations follow or produce unfunded mandates if they do not. Similarly, the statute mandates an Internet clearinghouse and stronger verification but does not enumerate success metrics, minimum data products, or interoperability standards—meaning technical and policy decisions about data formats, licensing, and IP will be made later via NOAA policy, contracts, or grants.
Workforce provisions give NOAA important new tools—scholarships, fellowship funding, and updated direct-hire pathways—but they confront a competitive labor market. NOAA will be competing with academia, private weather firms, and defense contractors for specialists in HPC, AI, and data assimilation.
The bill authorizes NOAA to fund universities and nonprofits to integrate technologies, but it does not specify long-term sustainment funding, timelines for technology transition, or expectations for maintenance of operational systems created through short-term awards. Finally, the Act encourages use of AI and unmanned systems without prescribing safeguards or verification standards, which raises the risk of deploying models with opaque failure modes into operational decision-making.
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