This Act would require the Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere to carry out pilot projects that improve subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts relevant to water management in the western United States and to agriculture nationwide. The pilots would be carried out within NOAA’s National Weather Service and Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, with coordination across NOAA, universities, and consortia.
The bill authorizes funding for 2025–2029 and includes a five-year sunset. These pilots are intended to produce measurable forecast improvements and to integrate enhanced data and modeling into decision-making for water resources and farming.
At a Glance
What It Does
Establishes at least two pilot projects within NOAA’s US Weather Research Program to improve subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts for water management in the western U.S. and for U.S. agriculture; sets coordination, objectives, and sunset rules.
Who It Affects
NOAA, the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, the National Weather Service, universities and consortia, regional climate centers, and stakeholders in water management and agriculture.
Why It Matters
Provides a structured, funded path to demonstrably improve forecasts used for drought planning, irrigation management, flood risk reduction, and resource allocation across critical sectors.
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What This Bill Actually Does
The bill amends Section 1762 of the Food Security Act of 1985 to create two pilot projects inside NOAA focused on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting. One pilot targets water management in the western United States, and the other targets agriculture nationwide.
The aim is to push forward forecast systems so they can better bridge short-term weather events and longer seasonal patterns, improving decision-making for irrigation, reservoir operations, and drought responses. The pilots are expected to leverage improvements in model resolution, the atmospheric boundary layer, and air-sea interactions, and to produce forecast products that meet defined operational objectives.
Activities under the pilots must build on the 2020 NOAA report “Subseasonal and Seasonal Forecasting Innovation: Plans for the Twenty-First Century,” pursue measurable forecast improvements, and involve institutions of higher education or consortia, as well as NOAA staff, including roles at the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and the National Weather Service. Coordination with relevant NOAA leadership ensures alignment with existing research programs and information platforms.Funding is authorized at $45,000,000 for each fiscal year from 2025 through 2029 to carry out the activities under this section, and a sunset is set five years after enactment.
The emphasis is on producing tangible improvements in forecast products and ensuring the results are usable by water managers and agricultural practitioners. This structure also anticipates collaboration with regional climate centers and the National Centers for Environmental Information to mature forecast capabilities into durable resources for decision-making.
The Five Things You Need to Know
The Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere must establish at least two pilot projects within NOAA’s Weather Research Program to improve subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts for water management and farming.
One pilot focuses on western U.S. water management; the other focuses on U.S. agriculture, each with defined objectives to improve model resolution and data quality.
Pilot activities include implementing recommendations from a 2020 NOAA report, achieving measurable forecast improvements, and engaging higher-education institutions or consortia.
Funding of $45 million per year is authorized for 2025–2029 to carry out these activities, with a five-year sunset.
Projects must be coordinated with the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and the National Weather Service, and with NOAA’s broader research infrastructure, including Regional Climate Centers and the National Centers for Environmental Information.
Section-by-Section Breakdown
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Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasting Pilot Projects
The bill adds a new pilot-project framework under Section 1762(h) to support improved subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts. It requires the Under Secretary to establish at least two pilots within NOAA’s US Weather Research Program, one targeting western U.S. water management and the other targeting U.S. agriculture. The pilots are designed to test and validate forecast improvements across the precipitation spectrum, with an emphasis on operational relevance for resource planning.
Pilot Establishment and Scope
Pilot projects must be established within NOAA’s Weather Research program to pursue concrete forecasting improvements. The western U.S. water management pilot and the agriculture pilot are expected to address core science challenges—ranging from model resolution to the depiction of land-surface processes and upper-level dynamics—and to produce actionable forecast products for decision-makers.
Key Objectives by Pilot
For the western water management pilot, the bill targets improvements in forecast resolution, mountainous terrain representation, atmospheric boundary-layer fidelity, winter storm prediction, atmospheric rivers, and ocean-atmosphere coupling. For the agriculture pilot, the emphasis is on land-surface hydrology, soil moisture, warm-season precipitation processes, and upper-level flow anomalies, with the goal of better drought and flood risk guidance for producers.
Activities and Collaboration
Pilot activities must align with the 2020 NOAA report on subseasonal and seasonal forecasting, aim for measurable forecast improvements, and engage higher education institutions or consortia and existing NOAA entities, including Regional Climate Centers and the National Centers for Environmental Information. Projects are to be conducted in coordination with the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and the National Weather Service.
Authorization of Appropriations and Sunset
The bill authorizes $45,000,000 for each fiscal year 2025 through 2029 to carry out the pilot activities. The authority terminates five years after enactment, creating a defined sunset and a built-in evaluation point for the program’s effectiveness and any need for continuation or expansion.
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Every bill creates winners and losers. Here's who stands to gain and who bears the cost.
Who Benefits
- Water management agencies and utilities in the western United States who can optimize reservoir operations and water allocations with better forecasts.
- Farmers and ranchers who rely on improved precipitation guidance and soil moisture insights for planting and irrigation decisions.
- Regional Climate Centers and the National Weather Service, which gain validated forecast products and new data into operations.
- Universities and consortia that participate in the pilots gain research opportunities and access to NOAA data and infrastructure.
- State and local governments and agriculture- and water-related industries that rely on forecast-driven planning.
Who Bears the Cost
- NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research and the National Weather Service incur administrative and operational costs to run the pilots.
- Federal and potentially state costs associated with coordinating with research partners and implementing pilot products.
- Producers and water users could face transitional costs to adopt new forecasting tools and decision-support processes.
- Universities and consortia may bear institutional costs related to participation and data usage.
- Taxpayers bear overall funding obligations through the appropriations that support the pilots.
Key Issues
The Core Tension
Balancing the desire to accelerate forecasting improvements with the uncertainty of climate-model gains and the finite five-year funding window; ensuring equitable, regionally distributed benefits while maintaining rigorous scientific validation.
The bill creates a promising mechanism to improve decision-relevant forecasts, but it also creates tensions around feasibility and timing. Subseasonal and seasonal forecasting remains technically challenging, and the success of these pilots depends on data availability, model improvements, and the ability to translate forecast products into usable guidance for water managers and farmers.
The five-year sunset raises questions about long-term integration of any proven advances and whether ongoing funding would be justified based on measured performance gains. There is also potential for uneven benefits across regions and sectors, depending on local climate, infrastructure, and governance structures.
The required coordination with multiple NOAA offices and with external academic partners will require careful governance and clear performance metrics to avoid scope creep or misalignment with existing programs.
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